What does an increase in droughts mean for African Agriculture?

                                 “The ruin of a nation begins in the home of its people” – African Proverb

            Now that I have established different methods of irrigation that African countries are adopting, I acknowledge that there is this overall sense of urgency regarding food security and introducing more farm savvy technologies to African countries. I ask myself if there are other variables adding to this imperativeness of irrigating farmlands. While researching this, overwhelmingly there is a consensus that climate change is significantly affecting farmland through the increase in the number of droughts. With this anthropogenic change occurring in past decades, droughts have caused much harm to farmers and is therefore another reason for introduction of irrigation methods in Africa. This blog post will address the overall increase of droughts and then will analyze what it means for the farming industry and the livelihood of the farmers. 

Picture of a drought in East Africa (Source)

            As climate change threatens all humans, it does not affect everyone equally. This is the case in the continent of Africa, where climate change is already hurting people’s everyday lives because of the significant increase in droughts. Here with extreme differences in seasons regarding rainfall, and the reliance of flood water from the shift of the ITCZ, a change in this weather pattern will be devastating to African agriculture. This change in seasonal rainfall is now seen returning yearly, providing an increase in droughts. In East Africa specifically, drought frequency has doubled from one every six years to one every three years, and from 2008-2010 drought affected over 13 million people in East Africa (Haile, 2019). Most notably changed is the decline of rains in the boreal spring, which is usually the long rainy season. In addition, in the boreal summer a decrease in rainfall also has been occuring. Whereas, in the boreal autumn, usually with short rains, there is a general increase in rainfall (Haile, 2019). This mirrors the increase or decrease in droughts, where in the summer and spring droughts are more frequent, severe and last longer, whereas in autumn droughts decrease. In South Africa, drought has also been prominent where between the years of 2014 to 2016, each new year was consecutively drier. Regarding the entirety of Africa, the Royal Meteorological Society has been tracking droughts since the 1970s worldwide and Africa has perpetually been on the list of hotspots for drought up to present day (Spinoni, 2013). This is seen in figure 1 showing the drought hotspots of the world increasing over time, and specifically in Africa. 

           

Figure1: Map depicting drought hotspots from 1951-2010 (Source)

      
          With the establishment that droughts have become more frequent in Africa, I will answer the question as to why this matters so profoundly to Africa. One of the biggest proponents for droughts being a hindrance is that Africa is still primarily reliant on traditional means of using the seasonality of water and dependence of flooding to grow crops. As Kreike says, “A key factor in identifying Africa as the most vulnerable continent is the very perception that African societies are directly dependent on their fickle environment” (Kreike, 2019). The most visible way of quantifying this is the stark decrease in food crop yield when there is a drought. During a 2011 drought in Kenya the entire agriculture sector produced 20% of its normal yields, in Somalia there was the lowest yield of sorghum and maize in 15 years, and in Northern Kenya 70-80% of the livestock had to migrate out of the region (Perez, 2019). With the 11 countries that are members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the constituents reported that in the dry season of 2017 to 2018, food insecurity increased 28%. The countries only harvested 37.5 million tons of grains in the growing season, which is 5.4 million tones fewer than the amount needed for consumption (Mpofu, 2019). In figure 2, the graph shows the abundance of food insecure areas for East Africa that are predicted becuase of increase in droughts. This devastating pattern continues throughout the various countries of Africa affected by drought, where drought profusely affects food crop yield, adding to food insecurity in these already fragile conditions. 

           

    Figure 2: East Africa food insecure areas that are predicted by the FEWS NET (Source)


           This obvious concern for droughts increasing food insecurity is part for the call to irrigate lands. If continuously farmers are unable to provide food this is a major problem for other Africans but also for the livelihood of the farmers. When the farmers cannot provide food, it is the main reason for food price increase, migration, hunger and unemployment (Haile, 2019). Some of these variables are shown in figure 3. In South Africa in the 2017-2018 drought, 25,000 jobs were lost from the agricultural sector, and in the country itself R 5 billion was lost to the economy because of the drought (Kalaba, 2019). In most cases, farmers are the first to not have food themselves if there is a drought, and in Somalia this was related to an increase in food conflict defined as,“ damaged infrastructure and outbreaks of violence can reduce access to markets and agricultural lands” (Perez, 2019). Overall, there is an imbalance in the countries of Africa as most of the people who will be affected by droughts themselves are farmers. In this situation, the poverty and socio-economic statuses of farmers will inequitably decrease.

           

                    Figure 3: This chart shows the different variables affected by droughts (Source)


          This problem of climate change and droughts, and the power it has to increase food insecurity, in a continent that already struggles immensely with food yields, adds another call to introduce irrigation, and new farming techniques. With irrigation methods in place farmers will become more resilient to droughts and will be able to battle future food insecurity. Therefore, energy should be focused to invigorating farming methods to prepare for drought, where irrigation could be one of the main methods to do so. Although, as researched before, irrigation alone will not be the sole answer to solving this problem of food insecurity. 

Small Scale Irrigation in Sub Saharan Africa: The other irrigation option

                       “If you want to go fast go alone. If you want to go far go together” – African Proverb

In last week's blog I touched on Large Scale Irrigation (LSI) projects in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and concluded that from irregular financial resources, most projects have not helped in aiding food security. This week I will be considering the latter option being looked at to decrease food insecurity, which is small scale irrigation (SSI). To be consistent, I will be discussing SSI projects only in SSA. 

Unlike traditional farming methods regarding water use, which is still the dominant way of farming in SSA, SSI does involve some sort of new construction system to be put into place. With regards to LSI, the fundamental difference is the ownership that farmers have over the SSI system, as well as the overall amount of land that is irrigated. Adams defines SSI as“… the management of the supply of water to crops or other economically useful plants, which is initiated organized and controlled by the landholder or groups of landholders; the extent of such activities does not normally exceed 10 ha per farm family, and may be as little as 0.1 ha” (Adams,1987). The key point from this definition that is important for this blog post is the emphasis on the farmers controlling and organizing the irrigation system. Some forms of SSI that can be used are; rainwater harvesting, flood recession, river diversion, treadle pumps and flood water spreading (Tafesse,2003). I will now focus on the positives and negatives researched about SSI projects to answer the question of whether this is a more promising method than LSI to battle food scarcity in SSA. 

Treadle Pump being used as a form of SSI (Source)

 Recently, the International Food Policy Institute and many NGOs have stated that more resources need to go into SSI in SSA as this is deemed the most proficient way to increase food supply sustainably. Arguably the main overarching reason for the push of SSI is to empower family farmers with knowledge of maintaining their own irrigation system. Therefore, in the long run farmers will be able to sustain themselves with little help from NGOs or government. The focal point of SSI is around the farmers becoming an essential part of the irrigation management. In a perfect world this is called Operation and Management, otherwise known as O&M, where the local people will manage and take over the irrigation system, after some initial help with building from a government or private company (Sakaki, 2013). SSI systems are also encouraged due to the low cost of implementation. Farmers and the town community can use their own money sometimes to buy a SSI system which can then be monitored and operated by the community. Perhaps the most important variable of SSI is the data on positive increase in food crop yield in the dry seasons. Consequently, this has raised farmers’ incomes in the dry season, “In Tanzania, an estimated 50% of the cash incomes of smallholders involved in private irrigation is derived from dry season vegetable cultivation” (Fraiture, 2014). Overall, as I considered the basis of SSI systems that were written in these research papers, there is an overwhelming consensus that if SSI is put in place with consistent management, it will help the community economically and provide more food. 

Farm profit in Ghana, comparisons showing unirrigated versus irrigated farms (Source)

Much of what is the negative or more worrying aspect of SSI, is the dependency of the management of the local farmers and the relationship to whatever their initial financial source may be. Management wise there is a problem of control. In some cases, farmers may lose interest in maintaining their irrigation systems or on the flip side, there could be problems with sharing said ownership with the government or an NGO. Figure 1 is able to show a scenario of what may arise from community management complexities. 

Figure 1: Depiction of the different problems that can arise from a community managed system (Source)

Adding more confusion to this O&M situation is the amount of people working on the project and the easy way that one group could be left out with all these different actors. 

Figure 2: This matrix depicts the different factors that will go into the management of the SSI (Source)

Questions of roles regarding different families working together, the part of a woman in management, if the community can keep up maintenance costs, and traditional values are all aspects that can hinder the perfect O&M system, this is shown by all the variables in figure 2. The most ethical way to avoid this problem is stated by Barnett that each new irrigation project must be treated as its own, ranging from country to country or even city to city. This is due to different ways of life and knowledge in each community that needs to be at the center of the SSI system (Barnett, 1984). Another factor for SSI not working is environmental issues. With blurred lines of who owns the water pump it is easy for a farmer to consider it as their own and overuse the water source. In Ghana, farmers on the edge of the reservoir do not ask permission to draw water from the reservoir directly, which can incite many problems socially and environmentally (Fraiture, 2014). Additionally, if there is poor land management of the O&M system this could lead to land degradation or poor water quality if not monitored correctly (Tafesse, 2003). 

The potential of SSI in SSA is hopeful as one of the necessary ways to reduce food insecurity and poverty. Compared to LSI, smaller irrigation projects have proven to be more worthwhile in terms of empowerment of the community and allowing family farmers to have their land while most importantly providing a water source throughout the dry season. With this utopic way of looking at SSI, compared to my finding last week on LSI, smaller irrigation projects seem the better way economically and socially for SSA. Although, as seen in the negatives that research has touched on concerning management of SSI, it will only be shown with time if these community management schemes will be able to last in the long term to be a safe and productive option for food security issues.

Large Scale Irrigation in Sub Saharan Africa: Good, or Bad?

                               "Where water is the boss there the land must obey" - African proverb 

My investigation this week is based on the potential of large-scale farming in Africa to decrease food insecurity. With the premise of water scarcity as the main variable in this blog, I will look specifically at irrigation methods that have been implemented, and if they have increased crop yield. This week I hope to answer if large scale irrigation (LSI) practices are a worthy candidate to eliminate food scarcity in Africa. 

            To irrigate lands in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), which will be the focus this week geographically, on paper is a “no brainer”. Here, rainfall is extremely seasonal, lands are arid and socially it is home to some of the greatest poverty in Africa. Yet in SSA only 3-5% of crops are irrigated, while farming taking up the livelihood of 2/3 of the population (Adams, 1991). During my research of LSI, I came across three projects that have been studied extensively, specifically in the SSA region. These are the Bakolori Project, the Sokoto state project and the South Chad Irrigation Project. The irrigation methods adopted in these areas were all based on a large-scale dam, or reservoir, to hold water throughout the year, with canals and pipes to connect to farms. Studies were conducted to monitor the effect of these three projects over the course of 20 years. I will state here that I must critique myself for basing my hypothesis of LSI in SSA only on three projects, is no way holistic of the continent of Africa, and even the region of SSA. But for the purpose of this blog and specific topic, to explore these projects made an interesting case. What I found is a case denying any advantageous qualities of LSI to increase food production. The negative outcomes of LSI were through project development not being followed through and adverse impacts both environmentally and socially. 

Map depicting where the three LSI irrigation projects are (Source)

In the case of project development at these three sites, the amount of land initially set to be irrigated by the LSI systems was never reached because of construction never concluding. In the Bakolori project the aim was to have 300,000 ha irrigated. Eight years later the number dropped to 125,000 ha. Even more drastically, in the following six years and the final year of the project, the number dropped to only 30,706 ha irrigated (Adams, 1991). Similarly, in the Lake Chad project, the construction of a pipe supply canal that would be connected to the Tiga dam was halted due to financial constraints. Subsequently, this caused there to be only 12,000 ha irrigated rather than the initial goal of 82,000 ha (Adams, 1991). In the Sokoto state the same pattern occurred, with less irrigated land due to lack of following the development plans. 

In these three areas, because of the inability to produce irrigated land, crop yield decreased with the under-developed LSI systems in place. This greatly tied into the livelihood of the SSA residents, especially the small family farm workers. To depict this, figure 1 shows the projected crop yield compared to the actual crop yield in the South Chad project, where crops yielded only 17-69 % of what was projected. Additionally, seen on the graph is the concern that a drop in crop yield will elevate the possibility of decreasing crop yield in further seasons. 

Figure 1: Projected vs actual crop yields in South Chad Irrigation System (Source)

Financially this is explained by calculating the failure costs of LSI in SSA compared to non-SSA regions, “The average unit total cost of failed new construction projects in SSA is US$23,200 per ha…. more than twice the average of failed projects in non-SSA” (Inocencio, 2007). In other words, if there is a lower crop yield this impacts the SSA region incomparably to the other developing regions this paper examined. This extends the problem that if LSI is not developed well enough to produce a sustaining crop yield, this will hurt the livelihood of African people in SSA more extremely in future years. 

            In terms of environmental problems associating with socio-economic status, this connects to the dependency of the SSA on the seasonality of rain and flooding for small-scale agriculture practices and fishing. When a dam is set in place this disrupts the natural ecology of the river basin. In Bakolori, the reservoir built forced a natural floodplain to be completely covered. Small family farm crops were lost and precious land that was able to hold nutrients and water moisture throughout the year was erased (Yahaya, 2002). On a broader note; in all three projects due to the construction of large dams, people were displaced from their land. In Bakolori, 13,000 family farms were left without a home or their means of life, farming (Yahaya, 2002). In the Kano River project small-scale farmers had to sell their land and then search for work in the now bigger farm schemes, making an “increased inequality in land and income distributions” (Adams, 1991). Overall, these environmental land changes from the LSI systems brought new socio-economic conflicts to the already, poverty-stricken area of the SSA. 

The Bakolori Dam to show its immense size (Source)

            Regarding my research this week, I find myself asking even more questions than when I first started examining the topic of LSI. Looking at these projects that have been monitored in the SSA, what stood out to me were the predominate facts of failure; crop yield decrease, environmental ecological problems, a wider gap in socio-economic status and to touch on my overall theme, a seemingly greater problem of food scarcity. I have noted that this overarching negative outcome of the three projects was greatly due to the infrastructure planned not being completely built, because of financial and governmental constraints on the project. In theory, the potential of LSI was never fully realized. I conclude with the question of if larger irrigation practices to help food security will only successfully work if there is enough continuous resources and aid from larger organizations, or if the larger systems will fundamentally not work and resources should be given to small scale farmers only?

           

An Overview of African Farming: Farmers are the Experts

          

                                 "Even the best cooking pot will not produce food" - African Proverb



              Welcome to this blog that will focus on issues of water revolving around agriculture in Africa. As I was pondering over where to start in this vast subject, I recalled a statement that our professor said in class; something along the lines of, “if you were to put a farmer from another country in an African farm, they would fail”. In other words, if one was to ask a farmer, let’s say from the Netherlands, to farm a certain region in Africa with the techniques they know, they would struggle immensely. This postulation that African farmers are experts to their region has resonated with me and urges me to explore the techniques that farmers use, specifically addressing water scarcity. Therefore, as I start this blog with the broad basis of African farmer’s expertise in farming their land, over these next weeks I will delve into the relationship of water while specifically looking at the contrasting ways of small-scale agriculture versus large scale agriculture, concerning these specialized farming techniques used. In this beginning post I will address the overall context of agriculture in Africa and then continue with confronting agricultural techniques specific to small scale farming in Africa. 


            In Africa 65% of people are employed in the agriculture sector. Yet 1 in 3 people in Sub-Saharan Africa are undernourished (Fundira, 2017). To add to this layer of contradictory statistics, the UN reports that Africa, “has enormous potential to, not only feed itself and eliminate hunger and food insecurity, but also to be a major player in global food markets” (NEPAD, 2013). From 2013, when this report was written, to 2017 in a follow up report, there still was no large economic change within the agriculture sector. Even more concerning, food imports have risen in Africa, with no increase in economic gains from agriculture. Regarding exports, in 1970 Africa produced 8% of the world’s total agricultural export, whereas in 2017 they dropped down to a low 2%  (Fundira, 2017). 

Statistics of African Agriculture (Source)

These reports confirm a reality of certain lines not being connected in Africa, discouraging the potential for agriculture to help the country. Even more seriously, food security is still a profound issue. This inability of growth in the agriculture sector are due to reasons of political conflict, distribution problems, availability of resources, government funding and problems concerning water. Although all these subjects are extremely important in solving the problem of food security and agriculture, this blog will focus on the final conflict of water.

            With the significance that agriculture plays on employing almost two-thirds of its population, it is important to note the type of farming that is mostly being done is small-scale based, otherwise known as “family farming”. The UN states that, “Africa has 33 million farms of less than 2 hectares, accounting for 80% of all farms” (NEPAD, 2013). This staggering number of small-scale family farms puts the entirety of Africa in a fascinating position where most of the farming landscape is still more or less in the hands of local people. Currently these family farms mostly rely on their own resources, with no funding from the government, aggravating the problem of growing enough food for their nation. The 20% of farming that is not family farming, is large-scale investment farming, that is increasingly changing the African agriculture landscape (NEPAD, 2013). What this means for the future of small-scale farming in Africa will have to be discussed in a further blog.  

A typical African family farm (Source) 

            The point of African farmers as experts of their land is deeply rooted in history. Widely accepted is the belief that the African continent is the birthplace of agriculture and domestication of animals. These farming techniques that I will address are all centuries-old methods that have been engrained in the history of the continent. More pressing to this blog, is the relationship and awareness that these methods have of the water systems in their specific region. In West Africa a farming technique known as biochar is used to produce nutrients in soil and combat erosion. Char consists of ash, bones, and organic waste that can be collected daily (Andrei, 2016).  Unlike compost, biochar will not decompose fully and will rather keep the carbon dioxide and methane in the soil underground for a longer time, providing lasting nutrients in the dry seasons. In the Lake Chad region, the Shuwa and Kanun communities engineer their crops with the knowledge of the wet and dry seasons that affect the flooding of Lake Chad. Therefore, in early October the sorghum crop is planted on flat edges of the field where the land is kept moist from the early fall flooding (Hopkins, 2001). This is known as the Firki or flood retreat system.

Flood Retreat System near Lake Chad (Source)

 Similarly, in the region of the Niger River Bend near Timbuktu, the Decrue irrigation method has been a constant procedure in the farming of the region. When the annual dry season begins, planting occurs as the river water is receding so that throughout the dry season the soil will contain moisture that is trapped from the wet season (Hopkins , 2001). These three methods are just a small number that encompass the multitude of other techniques that I have found in my research thus far. 


            In this first blog I hope to have convinced you that African farmers have been developing crops on their more strenuous land for centuries now, perfecting methods that relate to the seasonality and scarcity of water. In addition, there is a significant number of family farms versus large scale farms, that will possibly connect to the theme of African people as vital farming experts and how it can help African agriculture. On a wider scale, in Africa the connection to food security, agriculture, and water are not occurring.