The future for Africa in water and food security

                             “For tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today” – African Proverb

          
               During this time blogging I have been examining what the problems are regarding water and agriculture and why this has made food insecurity such an issue in Africa. Broadly, I have found that after decolonization of the continent there has been a lack of support through government and policy regarding water resources and empowering farmers. NGOs have been helping through funding and various projects, but this is a tricky area where small-scale farmers that still represent most of the African work force, may not be considered fully in the NGOs project. Further, this issue of food insecurity is emphasized by the dearth of resources towards small-scale farmers. I have explored ways in which Africa can actively abate this problem. Most prominently I have found in all my blog posts that an increase in irrigation and management of the actual irrigation is most vital to consider solving food insecurity. Therefore, I would like to finish this blog with a final mark on the connection between water and agriculture and the actual potential that the continent has in its groundwater that can be used for irrigating croplands. 


            The irrigation potential of Africa is vital to consider because of the untapped resources that are throughout the continent, and the overall importance that agriculture has on society. Presently,  only 6% of land that is equipped for irrigation is being used, but there is potential for agricultural productivity to increase by 50% through irrigation (You et al, 2011). One study by You et al, assessed the continent's overall potential for implementing irrigation through both dam-based and small-scale analyses. They found that there can be a 177% increase potential to expand irrigation in Africa over the next 50 years (You et al, 2011). In another study done by Pretty et al, they claimed that in order for Africa to have more sustainable agriculture in the future there needs to be an increase in water use efficiency, improvement of soil health and fertility, and pest control methods (Pretty et al, 2002). This research then analyzed 52 projects that began practicing agricultural development methods and technologies, including irrigation. The final results showed that on average, each project that included irrigation development in their cropland had an increase in per hectare food production of 93% (Pretty et al, 2002).

             Possibly the most robust study that has been done to assess the potential for irrigation in Africa was done by Altchenko and Villholth. In this project they determine the potential for irrigation based on the practicalities of renewable groundwater by looking at the hydrological characteristics of Africa. Most simply put, they were able to determine the irrigation potential by looking geographically at distinct locations in Africa and calculating the available groundwater resources that could be used for irrigation purposes (GWIP) (Altchenko and Villholth, 2015). The equation to determine the GWIP is shown in figure 1. 

Figure1: Equation used to determine groundwater resource irrigation potential (Source)

 This data was then put into different models and simulations to consider different scenarios of groundwater recharge and human needs, to try to fully determine the GWIP. In figure 2, two different scenarios are shown for GWIP considering different variabilities of groundwater recharge throughout Africa. 

Figure 2: Two different scenarios of GWIP (Source)

 The results of the study concluded that irrigation potential for agriculture purposes ranged from 44.6 to 105.3x10^6 ha. This relates to 20.5 to 48.6% of the cropland of Africa (Altchenko and Villholth, 2015). This concludes that while there is much potential for irrigation, it is not geographically equal throughout the continent, and there are still some locations where data is unsure or difficult to receive.
               In conclusion, what I have taken away from these research papers is that while there is a vast potential in Africa to start using groundwater resources for agriculture, this varies unequally throughout the continent. Although, I argue that with the positives that continuously show in the data of farms that have begun to irrigate their cropland and the consequent increase in food yield, irrigation implementation is necessary to secure food crops in the future. 


              As a final note to conclude this blog, I would like to end with my opinion on considering, in a perfect world, what the continent of Africa must execute in order to secure food crops, while considering the high-water variability. There needs to be a mixture of small-scale and large-scale irrigation projects, that most importantly asses both the environmental effects of the area and the socio-economic background of the small-family farmers. In addition, there needs to be an increase in policy and funds by governments, NGOs need to play a part in providing funds to farmers while creating a platform for them to continuously sustain their farms once they leave, and agricultural management techniques need to be set up on small and large scale farms. Most importantly, farmer's needs must be considered fully in whatever the future of African agriculture may be.